THERE ARE LOTS OF POLITICAL CALCULATIONS in legislative negotiations: what to give away when, what to ask for, where to hold the meeting and what aide to bring in tow, for example.
PERHAPS NOTHING IS MORE TRICKY than deciding when — and how — to walk away.
TEN MEETINGS between Speaker NANCY PELOSI, Senate Minority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, White House chief of staff MARK MEADOWS and Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN over two weeks have yielded little more than bickering and resentment.
AT JUST BEFORE 8:30 THURSDAY NIGHT, after a three-hour meeting, negotiators emerged to say they had made progress on small-bore items, but remain trillions of dollars apart on an overall package, and still had no agreement on the big items like enhanced unemployment insurance and state and local funding.
FOR NOW, there won’t be another Covid stimulus bill, and now both sides will have to figure out how to position themselves amid the rubble of what might be Congress’ biggest swing and miss in a decade. More from Marianne LeVine, John Bresnahan and Heather Caygle on talks going nowhere
BLAME WILL FLY.
PELOSI and SCHUMER are already maligning President DONALD TRUMP and Republicans for, in their explaining, not recognizing the scope of the problem. “We had what I would call a consequential meeting. It was one where we could see the difference in values that we bring to the table. We have always said that the Republicans and the president do not understand the gravity of the situation and every time that we have met, it has been reinforced,” PELOSI said.
INDEED, THE GOP NEGOTIATORS PUSHED TO pare back Democrats’ aggressive demands, shrink the programs they were seeking to put in place and generally minimize the need for government intervention.
BUT THERE WAS A MIDDLE GROUND, and therein lies the DEMOCRATS’ own gamble: They held hostage the main components of the bill in order to try to score a big package. They only offered modest concessions. In this case, the White House’s typical hyperbole — Dems are intransigent! — will be largely true, and they even admit it. Democrats firmly believe they need a global deal, and thought they could hold out, and rank-and-file Republicans would revolt over the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits. Maybe they still will, but it was a risky bet.
MEADOWS put it this way: “I think for those that are suffering, they should be asking … the Democrats in the House and the Senate: Why have you failed to meet the needs that we have so rightly expressed? … We’re still a considerable amount apart in terms of a compromise that could be signed into law.”
THERE WAS A REALLY, REALLY EASY package here that was a bit too much for Republicans, and far too little for Democrats, but would’ve easily passed: PPP renewal, direct payments, extension of enhanced unemployment, $105 billion in education funding, eviction moratorium, testing money, $200 billion in state and local, $10 billion for USPS and SNAP money.
INSTEAD, THE WHITE HOUSE is finalizing executive orders to try to halt evictions and student loan payments, suspend the payroll tax and extend enhanced unemployment insurance. The signing of these executive orders could come as soon as this evening. DEMOCRATS will point to the $3 trillion bill they passed in the House in May as evidence that they were ready for the kind of legislating that the moment requires.
MAYBE THE THREAT OF THE E.O. forces changes. Maybe the job report unlocks something. It just seems unlikely at this point. It’s not even clear that negotiators will meet on Capitol Hill today.
HERE’S THE CATCH with all of this: Congress will have another bite at this apple. Even though there’s an election in 88 DAYS, there will be a government funding fight in 54 DAYS, as well. And there is no doubt at all that this fight will be rejoined then. Could it happen before then? Maybe. But both chambers are gone, and they’d need some intervening event to get back to the negotiating table.
MNUCHIN and PELOSI will both appear on “FOX NEWS SUNDAY” this week, and PELOSI is also on CNN’S “STATE OF THE UNION.”
THE PERSONAL POLITICS HERE ARE IMPORTANT, too. MNUCHIN has gotten a few big deals with Democrats that TRUMP has signed. But he has also grated on the nerves of Republicans, who believe he’s quick to give away the farm to Dems. So MEADOWS is in the room to represent that agita among rank-and-file Republicans, and ensure MNUCHIN doesn’t do it again. It’s fair to say that TRUMP has competing interests here: If he were in a room with SCHUMER and PELOSI, we have no doubt he would cut a massive deal with them. But he is unusually afraid of losing his base — a fear partially stoked by people like MEADOWS over the last four years.
ALSO … THIS IS THE MOMENT TRUMP promised us he was made for: two parties, endlessly deadlocked over a critical piece of legislation with the fate of the economy, the electoral prospects of his party and the health of the nation in the balance. Where’s the dealmaker in chief?
INSTEAD OF WORKING THE CAPITOL to break the logjam, TRUMP is in his bubble, at his summer vacation home in Bedminster, while the people he ran against — lifelong politicians and a former Wall Street banker — flail at a compromise. TRUMP called the GOP negotiators several times Thursday evening, though.
— THE COVERAGE: AP’s Andy Taylor: “Virus talks on brink of collapse, sides still ‘far apart’” … NYT’s Emily Cochrane and Jim Tankersley: “As Jobs Report Looms, White House and Congress Say Stark Divisions Remain Over Stimulus Plan” … WaPo’s Erica Werner, Jeff Stein and Paul Kane: “White House, Democrats fail to reach agreement on virus relief bill, and next steps are uncertain”
Good Friday morning.
FRONTS: NYT, with the headline: “U.S. Is Alone Among Peers In Failing to Contain Virus” … N.Y. POST … WSJ
MEANWHILE … JOHN KERRY won a 55-nautical-mile sailboat race around Martha’s Vineyard last weekend. The Vineyard Gazette
NEW … THE PACKAGE COALITION, a group of retailers, e-commerce and logistics companies, including Amazon, CVS Health, PCMA and others, is launching a $2.3 million ad campaign pushing support for emergency relief funding for the USPS. The broadcast and cable TV ad and 60-second radio spot will urge senators in Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Utah and West Virginia to support the Postal Service Emergency Assistance Act. The ad
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — ASHLEY ETIENNE TO BIDEN WORLD … ETIENNE, who has worked for PELOSI, the late Rep. ELIJAH CUMMINGS (D-Md.) and the Obama White House, is joining the BIDEN CAMPAIGN as senior adviser for strategic planning. THE CAMPAIGN: “As the campaign grows and prepares to bring a running mate on board, Ashley will coordinate strategic planning across the campaign to ensure consistent execution of messaging, organizing and programming priorities in all aspects of the campaign. She will help synchronize planning across VP Biden, Dr. Biden and the running mate’s schedules.”
INSIDE THE DEMS’ UNCONVENTION CONVENTION … HOLLY OTTERBEIN and RYAN LIZZA: “Who made the cut — or got axed — for coveted Democratic convention speaking slots”: “Bernie Sanders and John Kasich will share a night in the spotlight, and both Clintons are slated to have prominent speaking roles at the all-virtual Democratic National Convention in less than two weeks, multiple people familiar with the plans told POLITICO.
“Others who’ve been tapped for coveted speaking slots during an event that’s been shrunk down to eight prime-time hours over four nights are Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Jill Biden. And it goes without saying that the party’s two most popular figures, Barack and Michelle Obama, will be featured prominently.
“One source said Kasich — the former Republican governor of Ohio and a major critic of President Donald Trump — would appear on the same night as Sanders early in the week in a demonstration of unity. The duo would be designed to showcase a broad anti-Trump coalition that is backing Biden.” POLITICO
THE ECONOMY …
— WSJ: “U.S. Jobless Claims Fell to 1.2 Million in Latest Week,” by Eric Morath: “Filings for jobless benefits fell to their lowest level since the coronavirus hit the U.S. in March—a sign layoffs eased somewhat in a still struggling labor market—but remained at historically high levels for the 20th straight week.
“Initial unemployment claims fell by a seasonally adjusted 249,000 to 1.2 million for the week ended Aug. 1, the Labor Department said Thursday, well above the pre-pandemic record of 695,000 in 1982. The decline came as an extra $600 a week in pandemic-related unemployment benefits ended.”
BIG PICTURE … BEN WHITE: “Trump’s economic recovery could stall out entirely ahead of election”: “The U.S. job market recovery appears to be starting to stall, threatening President Donald Trump’s narrative of a rapid American comeback and a quickly declining unemployment rate headed toward the November election.
“The July jobs report due out on Friday morning is expected to show a gain of about 1.5 million, an impressive number in ordinary times but well below the 4.8 million created in June. A measure of private payrolls this week showed a gain of just 167,000 jobs in July, dramatically below the expected 1.2 million. New jobless claims declined a bit last week after two weeks of increases but remain above 1 million per week, blowing away the old record of 695,000 in 1982.
“And while Trump has promised a ‘big’ jobs number on Friday, the unemployment rate is likely to stay above 10 percent, a daunting figure for any incumbent president and higher than the worst level of the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009.”
BUT, BUT, BUT: “Trump, Facing Headwinds in Ohio, Talks Up Economy in Campaign Swing,” by NYT’s Maggie Haberman
THE CORONAVIRUS RAGES ON … 4.8 MILLION AMERICANS have been infected with Covid-19. … 160,104 AMERICANS have died.
— “Rising alarm as virus spreads deeper into country,” by WaPo’s Sarah Fowler, Anne Gearan and Rachel Weiner: “Mississippi, now experiencing the country’s highest rate of positive tests, is emblematic of the pandemic’s new reality. The virus is no longer principally an urban problem: It is present throughout every state, and those infected often don’t know it, leading to what top public health officials call ‘inherent community spread.’ …
“The situation in Mississippi is unfolding as well in other largely rural parts of the country, including in Alabama and California’s Central Valley, places where so much viral material is circulating that when people get infected, many are unsure when or how it happened — so the outbreaks cannot be easily traced and contained.” WaPo
THE WORLD VS. BIRX — “With Old Allies Turning Against Her, Birx Presses On Against the Coronavirus,” by NYT’s Sheryl Gay Stolberg: “Old allies and public health experts have expressed disgust at her accommodations to Mr. Trump and, more so, at the performance of the federal response she is supposed to be leading against the most devastating public health crisis in a century. Ms. Pelosi said she had lost confidence in Dr. Birx, while Mr. Trump called her ‘pathetic’ after she suggested the obvious: The coronavirus is in a ‘new phase’ and is spreading rampantly.
“‘Her credibility, particularly in the H.I.V.-AIDS community, has taken an enormous hit in the last five months,’ said Mitchell Warren, the executive director of AVAC, a global advocacy group fighting to end H.I.V./AIDS, who has worked closely with Dr. Birx. ‘She is absolutely data driven, so it is incredibly disappointing to see her coordinating a national response which has not at all been best in class, but has been a disaster on many levels.’” NYT
DAVID SIDERS: “Donald Trump is losing the culture wars”: “The culture wars aren’t working for Donald Trump. His law-and-order rhetoric isn’t registering with suburban voters. One of his leading evangelical supporters, Jerry Falwell Jr., was just photographed with his zipper down. Immigration isn’t provoking the response it did in 2016, and NASCAR has spurned the president.
“Even an attempt by a New York Democrat to take down the NRA — a lawsuit announced Thursday by state Attorney General Letitia James — looks unlikely to juice Trump’s reelection hopes. ‘America has changed,’ said Frank Luntz, the veteran Republican consultant and pollster. ‘Every person who cares about the NRA is already voting for Trump. Suburban swing voters care about the right to own a gun, but they don’t care about the NRA.’”
DOWN BALLOT — “Trump-endorsed Hagerty wins Tennessee Senate primary,” by James Arkin: “Bill Hagerty, President Donald Trump’s former ambassador to Japan, won the contentious Tennessee primary Thursday, securing the party’s nomination in the safe red state. Hagerty had 52 percent of the vote, compared to 38 percent for physician Manny Sethi, when The Associated Press called the race.” POLITICO
TRUMP’S FRIDAY — The president is in Bedminster, N.J., and has no public events on his schedule.
TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week” with Bob Costa: Lisa Desjardins, Robert Draper, Abby Phillip and Jonathan Swan.
SUNDAY SO FAR …
-
FOX
“Fox News Sunday”: Speaker Nancy Pelosi … Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Panel: Jason Chaffetz, Marie Harf and Josh Holmes. Power Player: The U.S. Army Old Guard’s Caisson Platoon.
-
CNN
“State of the Union”: Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
-
CBS
“Face the Nation”: National security adviser Robert O’Brien … Scott Gottlieb … Anthony Salvanto.
-
Gray TV
“Full Court Press with Greta Van Susteren”: White House chief of staff Mark Meadows … Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.).
-
Sinclair
“America This Week with Eric Bolling”: Sean Hannity … Ben Shapiro … Surgeon General Jerome Adams … Austan Goolsbee … Jose Aristimuño … Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.).
-
ABC
“This Week”: Panel: Matthew Dowd, Paul Begala, Christina Greer and Alice Stewart.
-
NBC
“Meet the Press”: Panel: Kasie Hunt, Joshua Johnson and Rich Lowry.
THE LATEST ON TIKTOK — “Trump Executive Orders Target TikTok, WeChat Apps,” by WSJ’s Andrew Restuccia in Washington and Jing Yang in Hong Kong: “President Trump issued a pair of executive orders that would impose new limits on Chinese social-media apps TikTok and WeChat, escalating tensions with Beijing and effectively setting a 45-day deadline for an American company to purchase TikTok’s U.S. operations.
“The orders bar people in the U.S. or subject to U.S. jurisdiction from transactions with the China-based owners of the apps, effective 45 days from Thursday. That raises the possibility that U.S. citizens would be prevented from downloading the apps in the Apple or Google app stores.
“It also renews pressure on Microsoft Corp. and TikTok’s parent, Beijing-based ByteDance Ltd., to reach a deal for the app’s U.S. operations. The TikTok order formalizes Mr. Trump’s earlier calls for shutting down the app should no American buyer complete a deal within 45 days. Contracts agreed to before the 45-day period elapses aren’t subject to the prohibitions in the order.”
TOUJOURS DE L’AUDACE … RYM MOMTAZ in Beirut: “Macron offers Lebanon’s elite a carrot and a deadline”: “The French president gave Lebanon’s leaders until the end of the month to begin a reset of the political system and replace the rampant corruption and poor governance that dogged the country even before the catastrophic explosion that rocked the city on Tuesday.
“With an eye for symbolism, Macron delivered the message to the leaders of Lebanon’s political parties at the stately mansion in Beirut that serves as the official residence of the French ambassador. The building did not escape damage from the blast, with some of its windows blown out. This was the place a century ago on September 1 — the deadline for a political revamp set by the French president — where Greater Lebanon, the precursor to the modern state, was formally declared.”
NYT’S DAVID SANGER and MICHAEL CROWLEY: “Iran Envoy Brian Hook, a ‘Survivor’ on Trump’s Team, to Quit”: “The departure of Mr. Hook, 52, appears to bury any remaining chance of a diplomatic initiative with Iran before the end of Mr. Trump’s term. In the four years during which Mr. Hook became the face of United States sanctions against Tehran, Mr. Hook also held out the possibility of resuming direct talks, the way the Obama administration had.
“But to the Iranians — and to some of his critics in Europe and at home — Mr. Hook was merely a defender of a policy meant to break the country and force it to the table to renegotiate a deal they had reached, and complied with, with the Obama administration in 2015. Mr. Hook will be succeeded by Elliott Abrams, a conservative foreign policy veteran and Iran hard-liner.” NYT
MEDIAWATCH — “NBC News and Noticias Telemundo will team on bilingual reports on Latino community,” by L.A. Times’ Stephen Battaglio: “[T]he collaboration announced Thursday is the first formal initiative between the two units since the Spanish-language network became part of NBC — before it was NBCUniversal — in 2002.
“Under the umbrella title of ‘NBC News x Noticias Telemundo Reports,’ the stories will air in English across the streaming channel NBC News Now, the NBC broadcast network programs ‘Today’ and ‘NBC Nightly News With Lester Holt’ and various MSNBC programs. Spanish-language versions will appear on Telemundo’s network newscasts.” LAT
BOOK CLUB — CARLOS LOZADA, WaPo’s Pulitzer-winning book critic, is coming out with “What Were We Thinking: A Brief Intellectual History of the Trump Era” from Simon and Schuster on Oct. 6. He’ll draw on the roughly 150 books he’s read about Trump “to tell the story of how we understand ourselves in the Trump era.” $28 on Amazon
— “Former President Bush pays tribute to immigrants in new book,” by AP’s Hillel Italie: “Crown announced Thursday that Bush’s ‘Out Of Many, One: Portraits of America’s Immigrants’ will be published March 2. The book includes 43 portraits by the 43rd president, four-color paintings of immigrants he has come to know over the years, along with biographical essays he wrote about each of them.” AP … $38 on Amazon
Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].
NSC ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Christian Heller has joined the NSC’s strategic comms shop on detail from the Marine Corps, where he is an active-duty officer. He most recently was stationed at Fort Meade with the Marine Cryptologic Support Battalion, where he worked as a cryptologic watch officer.
TRANSITIONS — Rob Strayer will be EVP of policy at the Information Technology Industry Council. He previously was deputy assistant secretary of State for cyber and international communications and information policy. … Torey Carter-Conneen is now CEO of the American Society of Landscape Architects. He most recently was COO of the American Immigration Lawyers Association. …
… Tyler Cherry is starting as director of rapid response with the Arizona Democratic Party, as part of the Biden-DNC coordinated campaign. He most recently was a director at SKDKnickerbocker. … Alyssa Pettus is now media relations manager at Leidos. She most recently was press secretary for Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.).
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jessica Schwartz Bernton, legislative director for Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), and Jeremy Bernton, senior director at Arabella Advisors, welcomed Mira Shantha Bernton on July 31.
BIRTHWEEK (was Thursday): Cal Cunningham (h/t Matthew Cornelius)
BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Kimberly Ellis, principal at Monument Advocacy. A trend she thinks doesn’t get enough attention: “I was talking with a doctor recently who noted all the money being poured into research to fight Covid could help accelerate research into treatments and cures for other diseases. What else can we better treat as we’re trying to protect against Covid? What good can come out of this?” Playbook Q&A
BIRTHDAYS: Jonathan Swan, national political reporter at Axios, is 35 … Robert Mueller is 76 … Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) is 48 … Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) is 41 … Reason’s Nick Gillespie is 57 … Ron Christie is 51 … Matt Dornic, head of strategic comms at CNN … Andrew Gradison … CNN’s Dan Merica is 32 … Ray Washburne (h/t David Bohigian) … Axios media reporter Sara Fischer is 3-0 (h/t Ben Chang, filing from Asheville, N.C.) … Kim Molstre … Scott Stossel, national editor of The Atlantic … Michigan GOP Chair Laura Cox (h/t Hannah Osantowske) … Alan Keyes is 7-0 … Matt Mazonkey, VP for government relations at Airbus (h/t Mitchell Rivard) … Kristin Leary … POLITICO Europe’s Hans von der Burchard … Alisa Wolking … MSNBC senior publicist Hollie Tracz … Jordan Heiliczer of the Asian American Hotel Owners Association … Jenn Lore London … Susan Feeney, partner at GMMB … Daniel Lerner … Mary Kathryn Steel … Bruce Friedrich, executive director and co-founder of the Good Food Institute … Juven Jacob … POLITICO’s Shannon Foley … NYT’s William Rashbaum … Breanne Deppisch …
… Caitlin Legacki, comms director at House Majority PAC … Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s Ryan Callanan … former Louisiana Gov. Edwin Edwards is 93 … Brian Steel, EVP of PR for CNBC (h/t brother Patrick) … NPR’s Brian Naylor … March for Life’s Tom McClusky … former Commerce Secretary Mickey Kantor is 81 … Annamaria Kimball is 28 (h/t TJ Adams-Falconer) … George Kelemen, Texas Retailers Association CEO, is 51 … Wesley Derryberry, an associate at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich and Rosati … CC Leslie … James Whitlock … H.W. Brands is 67 (h/t son Riley) … John Mayo … Elizabeth (Brandler) Danowski … Meredith Beaton Didier … Caroline Huddleston Haley … Felicia Knight … Kimberly Willingham Hubbard … Eric Dinallo is 57 … George Kelemen … Andrew DeSouza … Chad Phillips … TJ Londagin … Alexis Glick … Kirsten Borman Dougherty … Matt Lehner … Ryan Pettit … Anthony Ratekin … Daryn Frischknecht … Aissa Canchola … Tamika Day … Meredith Griffanti … Allyn Brooks-LaSure … Cynthia Wieland-Meyer … Shannon Sullivan … Kim Rogers (h/t Teresa Vilmain)
