North Texas is the epicenter of a 2020 political struggle that will determine the course of Lone Star politics for the next decade.
After a delay because of the coronavirus pandemic, the November general election field is set.
From top to bottom, the contests will be a referendum on the presidency of Donald Trump, including his handling of the pandemic and his stewardship during the social justice movement spurred by the killing of George Floyd.
Floyd was the unarmed Black man who died after a white Minneapolis police officer kneeled on his neck. His killing prompted protests throughout the world and, along with the COVID-19 crisis, reshaped the 2020 political scene.
While most people are tuned to the presidential contest between Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, there are some fascinating races to watch in North Texas.
The biggest prize at stake is the Texas House. Democrats are nine seats away from seizing the House, but Republicans — still smarting after a net loss of 12 seats in 2018 — are motivated to add to the majority they have enjoyed since 2003.
North Texas is the scene of several bellwether congressional contests that will reveal if demographic shifts have impacted regional politics.
Aside from the presidential contest, the marquee race on Texas ballots is the U.S. Senate showdown between Republican incumbent John Cornyn and former Air Force combat veteran MJ Hegar, the Democratic Party’s nominee.
But this week let’s take a look at some of the area races that will set the political course for the next decade.
There are numerous House battlefields in North Texas. Let’s first look at Collin County.
Before 2018, the area was reliably red and Democrats seemingly had no chance to break through.
But 2018 brought unexpectedly close contests for GOP incumbents Matt Shaheen and Jeff Leach. Both Plano lawmakers represent Collin County-anchored districts.
Shaheen is facing a rematch against Democrat Sharon Hirsch in District 66. He beat Hirsch in 2018 by a margin of less than 1%.
In nearby District 67, Lorenzo Sanchez stormed from behind to win the Democratic Party’s nomination in Tuesday’s runoff. He now faces Leach, who won reelection in 2018 by a less than 3% margin.
Republicans hope that the 2018 warning shot can be attributed to the groundbreaking Senate campaign of former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso, who got 46% of the vote in Collin County but lost to incumbent Ted Cruz.
Shaheen and Leach are better prepared this time.
But it’s likely that the new voters moving into bustling Collin County, as well as a backlash from independents against Trump, could boost the Democratic challengers.
If Shaheen and Leach hold on, it will help Republicans maintain control of the House. If they lose, it means Collin County is a swing area trending toward Democrats.
Tarrant County is also a Texas House battleground, where at least five seats could be up for grabs.
And pay close attention to Dallas County. Democrats are confident that they can claim the two seats held by Republicans Morgan Meyer of University Park and Angie Chen Button of Garland. Both contests are rematches. Joanna Cattanach of Dallas is challenging Meyer after losing to him in 2018 by 220 votes, and Brandy Chambers of Garland is taking on Button, who beat her in 2018 by about 2 percentage points.
Republicans are on the offensive as well. They’ll try to reclaim seats Democrats won in 2018, including Republican Luisa Del Rosal of Dallas against incumbent Democrat John Turner of Dallas, and former Rep. Linda Koop of Dallas trying to win the seat she once held from incumbent Democrat Ana-Maria Ramos of Richardson.
By now we know one of the most expensive and most watched races will be in District 24, the area between Dallas and Fort Worth represented by retiring Republican Kenny Marchant.
The contest features former Irving mayor Beth Van Duyne, a Republican, and former Carrollton-Farmers Branch school district trustee Candace Valenzuela, a Democrat. Stay tuned for a hard-fought bitter race between a proven, relentless campaigner in Van Duyne and the increasingly battle-tested Valenzuela.
Van Duyne easily won her primary, while Valenzuela beat former Air Force Col. Kim Olson in last week’s runoff.
District 24 is a swing district. The candidate that can best turn out their base and appeal to independents will have the advantage.
While District 24 will get most of the headlines, pay close attention to District 3, where Republican incumbent Van Taylor is being challenged by political newcomer Lulu Seikaly, both of Plano.
The Collin County district is in transition, much like neighboring District 32 in Dallas County had been for several election cycles.
Like the House races in Collin County, the District 3 congressional race will showcase whether demographic shifts have impacted the political scene.
In District 32, Republican Genevieve Collins of Dallas is challenging incumbent Democrat Colin Allred of Dallas, who in 2018 wrestled the seat away from longtime incumbent Pete Sessions.
Collins, who was an executive at an education company before making her first run for public office, could have greater appeal than Sessions to the new suburban voters in the district, particularly women. But Allred, a former NFL player and lawyer, has been gobbling up support from business leaders and beat Sessions — in part with his support from suburban women voters.
If Allred wins again, District 32 will become a safe Democratic seat.
