The claim: “Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania actually in the latest jobs data have lost jobs, not gained them.” — Julián Castro, Democratic presidential contender.
Castro took a shot at President Donald Trump’s stewardship of the economy during the Oct. 15 Democratic presidential debate in Westerville, Ohio. His full comment: “All of us are out there every single day talking about what we’re going to do to make sure that more people cross a graduation stage, that more families have great health care, that more folks are put to work in places like Ohio, where Donald Trump has broken his promises,” Castro said, “because Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania actually in the latest jobs data have lost jobs, not gained them.”
PolitiFact ruling: False. Official government figures show that each state gained jobs between July 2019 and August 2019, the latest month-over-month period available. To arrive at his job-loss figure, Castro cherry-picked a time period that he didn’t mention in his remarks — a time period that ignores the existence of the most current data.
His assertion that employment levels have been crumbling in these states is belied by data showing that each state has seen job gains both in the past year and since Trump took office.
Discussion: Castro’s campaign said he compared March figures with July figures, showing that employment dropped in Ohio by 7,300, in Michigan by 11,500, and in Pennsylvania by 4,500.
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Note that Castro used July, rather than August, even though August numbers are available. He argued that July is a better measurement because the August numbers will be revised before being made official.
The August numbers will indeed be revised — here’s a primer on employment data revisions — but it’s not a common practice to simply wave away the most recent figures because they will eventually be revised. All employment numbers are eventually revised, yet economists regularly study the most recent ones, politicians talk about them, and the media covers them.
More to the point, Castro didn’t provide any indication in his statement that he was using a non-standard comparison. What his figures amount to are a cherry-picked month-to-month quirk that paints a misleading picture of the job trends in each of these states.
For the full-year period between August 2018 and August 2019, Ohio saw a gain of 24,800 jobs; Michigan saw a gain of 16,000 jobs and Pennsylvania saw a gain of 38,400 jobs.
For more on the research and the conclusion, visit Politifact Texas, www.politifact.com/texas/
