Appearing on the debate stage is like basic nutrition to a presidential campaign. The stage is all but set for October’s Democratic primary debate. For November, the thresholds are being upped so that a candidate needs either 5% in two early state polls or 3% in four qualifying national or early state polls. Candidates also need to reach a fundraising threshold.
Our Nevada and South Carolina polls put businessman Tom Steyer on the precipice of making the November debate. He earned 4% in Nevada and 3% in South Carolina. That gives him three qualifying polls (including a prior Nevada poll), and he has until “seven days before the date of the November debate” to get his fourth. (We do not yet know when the November debate will take place.)
Businessman Andrew Yang also looks likely to qualify for the November debates. He earned 3% in our Nevada poll, which puts him at three qualifying polls overall.
The candidates who had already made the November debate stage include former Vice President Joe Biden, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker didn’t reach 3% in either of our new polls. He’s two short currently for the November debate, though he seems more likely than not to make it.
Former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar seem to be in at least a little trouble of making the November debate. They’ve each only gotten one qualifying poll for November so far.
The candidates in the biggest danger of not making November’s debate after making October’s are former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. Neither have a qualifying poll yet for November.
