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On the roster: Attack of the silly polls! – Warning signs for Warren’s fundraising – Bloomy erodes Trump’s general election cash lead – Bipartisan love, support for cancer stricken John Lewis – Ewe need to go up a cup size
ATTACK OF THE SILLY POLLS!
Readers always have a lot of questions for us about polls and how they work. Like a lot of questions.
In our experience the biggest problem with polling these days isn’t how polls are done, but how we in the press talk about them. Consider this terribly misleading headline from Gallup: “Obama, Trump Tie as Most Admired Man in 2019.”
That’s some mighty clicky clickbait right there. It’s sure to make partisans on both sides angry – “How could anyone think he is admirable” – and it reinforces the concept of a stark, encompassing partisan divide that succors all kinds of lazy political coverage.
But read the article and you see: Gallup asked respondents: “What man that you have heard or read about, living today in any part of the world, do you admire most?” This is the equivalent of saying “Name a famous person you like.”
Thanks to the considerable portions of our population who are absolutely skull-busted drunk on partisanship, guess which names you’re going to hear a great deal: The names of the most recent presidents from each party. And that adds up to a modest 18 percent for both President Trump and former President Barack Obama.
Before we explain how polls like that are inherently misleading, a word for a devotedly Democratic and robustly Republican readers: Maybe think about reading some non-political news from time to time. An astonishing 45 percent of Republicans said Trump was most admirable male human living on the planet. Forty-one percent of Democrats said the same of Obama.
You live in a country that includes this guy, this guy, this guy, this guy, this guy, this guy, this guy and this guy. And that’s without even leaving the United States. Bob Newhart is still alive, for goodness sakes!
We understand that a lot of those Trump and Obama answers were knee-jerk responses to a random phone call that were pushed through internal partisan filters that screen out anything that doesn’t seem like a tribal semiotic.
But seriously, if after careful reflection, a politician is the living person who you admire the most, take a deep breath and ask yourself the following question: “Is it early 1864 and is my answer Abraham Lincoln?” If your answer is no and you are not intimately related to the politician in question, think about trying again. Cults of personality are inherently un-American.
So back to polls and how they do and do not work.
First, 62 percent of the country said someone other than these two avatars of partisan warfare. Bill Gates, Pope Francis, the Dalai Lama and a gallimaufry of others came in for plenty of mentions, but didn’t get the concentrated support of either of America’s two most famous politicians – two of only a handful of people known in every household in the land.
So what does this poll tell us? Certainly not who the “most admired man” is among Americans since that would probably belong to a class of people, not an individual. Dads, firefighters, doctors, soldiers, teachers, police, etc. Nor does it tell us what qualities Americans admire in men.
It is the research equivalent of waking someone out of a sound sleep and demanding, “Name your favorite movie star!”
What it does is generate is clicks. It’s the kind of polling that waves a red flag at the bull of public sentiment and says, “Can you believe it!?” And when you do click and read further, you find a survey that not only doesn’t live up to the headline but isn’t at all in keeping with your own experiences.
There’s nothing wrong with the methodology of the poll. And the poll is certainly accurate, insofar as it could be under such a silly premise. But it’s the way the research is packaged and offered that does the harm.
That’s why we’re so picky about political polls and so careful about the way we discuss them.
First, we have to choose polls that are conducted the right way – live interviews conducted with landline and cellphone users, non-partisan, recent, of adequate sample size, with appropriate demographic components, etc. – but also that we don’t overhype or draw undue inferences. That’s one of the reasons we’re so big on averages and looking at trends over time.
We will be looking at hundreds of polls over the next 10 months. Maybe one you like isn’t included. Maybe one you hate makes the cut. But they’re just polls – little snapshots of public opinion at a moment of time. We rely on them to help us make good forecasts, but they’re just one part of political coverage overall.
And as you encounter polls like the one discussed above – the overpriced New Year’s Eve parties of public opinion research – try to keep all that in perspective. The hangover’s just not worth it.
THE RULEBOOK: IN NAME ONLY
“Under the confusion of names, it has been an easy task to transfer to a republic observations applicable to a democracy only; and among others, the observation that it can never be established but among a small number of people, living within a small compass of territory.” – James Madison, Federalist No. 14
TIME OUT: PUZZLE MEMORIES
Columbus [Ohio] Dispatch: “Although external sources of misinformation like ‘fake news’ and purposeful disinformation campaigns draw a lot of attention today, recent research at Ohio State University indicates we might misremember information all on our own. In a recent study, Ohio State researchers found that when given accurate statistics on a controversial issue, people tended to misremember numbers to match their own beliefs. Then, when researchers gave study participants accurate information and asked them to convey it to others, the information grew more and more different as it was passed from person to person. … Jason Coronel, an assistant professor of communication at Ohio State [says] … [p]eople tend to think of their memories as simply a video recording device… But lots of research in psychology indicates memory doesn’t work that way. Instead, think of memory as a jigsaw puzzle, he said — sometimes you’re missing some pieces, or you’ve got pieces from multiple boxes dumped on the same table.”
Flag on the play? – Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your tips, comments or questions.
SCOREBOARD
DEMOCRATIC 2020 POWER RANKING
Biden: 26.2 points (no change from last wk.)
Sanders: 18.6 points (no change from last wk.)
Warren: 16.2 points (no change from last wk.)
Buttigieg: 9.4 points (no change from last wk.)
Bloomberg: 5.2 points (no change from last wk.)
[Averages include: NBC News/WSJ, CNN, Quinnipiac University, USA Today/Suffolk University and NPR/PBS/Marist.]
TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE
Average approval: 43.8 percent
Average disapproval: 51.4 percent
Net Score: -7.6 percent
Change from one week ago: no change
[Average includes: NBC/WSJ: 44% approve – 54% disapprove; CNBC: 40% approve – 49% disapprove; CNN: 44% approve – 52% disapprove; Quinnipiac University: 43% approve – 52% disapprove; USA Today/Suffolk University: 48% approve – 50% disapprove.]
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WARNING SIGNS FOR WARREN’S FUNDRAISING
NYT: “Senator Elizabeth Warren’s slip in the 2020 primary polls has been accompanied by a dip in donations, with her campaign setting a rare public goal: aiming to raise $20 million for the fourth quarter of 2019 ending Tuesday, or about 20 percent less than what she raised in the previous three-month period. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., meanwhile, has rebounded from a weak third quarter, in which he raised only $15.7 million and spent $2 million more than he took in. Now his campaign is trying to assert his front-runner status in the Democratic primary, pushing in the final 48 hours of the year to post ‘our biggest fund-raising quarter yet,’ as Mr. Biden wrote in an email on Sunday, by topping the $21.5 million he raised last spring. The shifting financial fortunes … illustrate the unsettled nature of the Democratic presidential contest heading into 2020 … battling for position in the top tier of polling and seeking to bolster their treasuries ahead of the final sprint to the Iowa caucuses and beyond.”
Buttigieg hits Biden’s ‘judgment’ on Iraq – AP: “Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg on Sunday called former Vice President Joe Biden’s vote to authorize the Iraq War part of the nation’s ‘worst foreign policy decision’ of the millennial mayor’s lifetime. Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, was responding to a question about how his foreign policy experience measured up to others’ in the Democratic race, specifically Biden, who was a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when the U.S. went to war. ‘This is an example of why years in Washington is not always the same thing as judgment,’ Buttigieg said while recording the program ‘Iowa Press’ on Iowa Public Television, according to a transcript. ‘He supported the worst foreign policy decision made by the United States in my lifetime, which was the decision to invade Iraq.’ … Biden, who represented Delaware in the Senate, voted in October 2002 for the resolution to authorize the use of force in Iraq. … As a candidate for president in 2007, Biden said he would support legislation to repeal the resolution, which remains in effect. Biden’s campaign had no comment on Buttigieg’s remarks.”
Hecklers bring Trump tropes to Biden event – Fox News: “Former Vice President Joe Biden was interrupted by a series of hecklers calling him ‘creepy’ and a ‘pervert’ during a campaign event in Milford, N.H., on Sunday night. Shortly after Biden started speaking, a man in the back of the room accused him of acting inappropriately, shouting, ‘don’t touch kids, you pervert.’ ‘This is not a Trump rally,’ a flustered Biden fired back. ‘This is a democracy.’ A woman then started chanting ‘quid pro Joe,’ before another attendee shouted at the 2020 hopeful, inquiring about Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine. ‘I’ve released 21 years of my tax returns, how many has yours? What’s he hiding?’ Biden responded. The last two hecklers’ comments seemingly referred to Biden’s links to Ukraine, which President Trump referenced in his July 25 phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a call that ultimately led to Trump’s impeachment.”
Prime suspect: Bernie staffers gripe about use of Amazon – WaPo: “Sen. Bernie Sanders frequently attacks Amazon on the campaign trail, vowing to break up the online retail giant if elected, denouncing its treatment of workers and decrying its ability to pay no federal taxes on billions in profits. That’s why impassioned dissent erupted within the Sanders campaign earlier this year over its purchases of large amounts of supplies through Amazon, according to five people with knowledge of the situation. Carli Stevenson, then a senior Sanders campaign aide in New Hampshire, raised concerns directly with national campaign officials and suggested using a different company, three of the people said. Another New Hampshire staffer, state political director William Bateson, also voiced opposition to using Amazon, according to two of the people with knowledge of the situation. Stevenson and Bateson declined to comment for this story.”
BLOOMY ERODES TRUMP’S GENERAL ELECTION CASH LEAD
NYT: “…Michael R. Bloomberg is trying — his way — spending millions each week in an online advertising onslaught that is guided by polling and data that he and his advisers believe provide unique insight into the president’s vulnerabilities. The effort, which is targeting seven battleground states where polls show Mr. Trump is likely to be competitive in November, is just one piece of an advertising campaign that is unrivaled in scope and scale. On Facebook and Google alone, where Mr. Bloomberg is most focused on attacking the president, he has spent $18 million on ads over the last month, according to Acronym, a digital messaging firm that works with Democrats. That is on top of the $128 million the Bloomberg campaign has spent on television ads, according to Advertising Analytics, an independent firm, which projects that Mr. Bloomberg is likely to spend a combined $300 million to $400 million on advertising across all media before the Super Tuesday primaries in early March.”
Goes big in Texas – Texas Tribune: “Democratic presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg is ramping up his efforts in Texas, with plans to build a state operation that his campaign says will be unrivaled by anyone else in the primary field. In an announcement first shared with The Texas Tribune, his campaign said it will open a Texas headquarters in Houston and 16 field offices throughout the rest of the state between now and the March 3 primary. The offices will be spread across the Houston area, the Dallas-Fort Worth area, Austin, East Texas, the San Antonio area, El Paso, Laredo, McAllen and the Killeen area. The campaign also named its first Texas hires…”
BIPARTISAN LOVE, SUPPORT FOR CANCER STRICKEN JOHN LEWIS
WaPo: “Rep. John Lewis, a civil rights icon known for promoting voting rights, announced Sunday that he has Stage 4 pancreatic cancer and vowed to fight it as he has fought for racial equality and other human rights throughout his life. Lewis (D-Ga.), who has served in Congress since 1987, said doctors detected the disease this month during a routine medical visit and subsequent tests. He said he later received confirmation of the diagnosis. One percent of patients live five years after a diagnosis of Stage 4 pancreatic cancer, according to Johns Hopkins Medicine. The average patient with that diagnosis lives for about a year. Pancreatic cancer was the third most common cause of death from cancer in 2019, according to the National Cancer Institute.”
Meadows surprise retirement benefitted family friend – Politico: “Rep. Mark Meadows‘ shock retirement — revealed just 30 hours before the filing deadline in North Carolina — has roiled some Republicans in the state who suspect he timed his announcement to benefit a friend of his wife. The four-term congressman will depart the House for an as-yet-undefined role with President Donald Trump, a decision he disclosed in an interview with POLITICO Playbook that published around 5:30 a.m. on Dec. 19, ahead of the filing deadline at noon on Dec. 20. Later that day came a campaign launch by Lynda Bennett, a local GOP activist and real estate agent who is friendly with Debbie Meadows, the congressman’s wife, according to sources who know both women. Wary Republicans in the state quickly speculated that she had advance notice of Meadows’ retirement. Online records revealed her campaign website domain had been registered on Oct. 28 by a Scott Meadows, who appears to be the brother of the congressman.”
PLAY-BY-PLAY
Pergram: In 2020, DC will be mostly about politics, not legislation – Fox News
Former President Jimmy Carter returns to church first time after November brain surgery – AP
Biden says he might appoint Obama to Supreme Court – Fox Business
AUDIBLE: BON APPÉTIT
“Tell him come and I’ll give him some dessert at the White House.” – Former Vice President Joe Biden’s response when asked about Sen. Bernie Sanders’ claim that President Trump “will eat (Biden’s) lunch.”
Share your color commentary: Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM and please make sure to include your name and hometown.
EWE NEED TO GO UP A CUP SIZE
UPI: “Veterinarians in New Zealand said a sheep with severely damaged and saggy udders was spared surgery or worse when she was fitted with a bra designed for humans. Dr. Sarah Clews, a veterinarian with Franklin Vets Lifestyle Farms, said Rose, a romney ewe from a small farm in the Auckland area, suffered damage to her udders’ suspensory ligaments when she started producing a high volume of milk while pregnant with triplets. ‘When this happens the udder can hang so low that it can be traumatized on the ground. Unless the situation can be corrected, it is a case for euthanasia,’ Clews told Stuff.co.nz. Clews recommended Rose’s owners try supporting her udders with a bra to prevent her from requiring surgery to repair the ligaments or remove her udders.”
AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“In the calculus of nuclear deterrence, mobility guarantees inviolability. (The enemy cannot find, and therefore cannot preempt, a mobile missile.)” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on July 6, 2017.
Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.
Chris Stirewalt joined Fox News Channel (FNC) in July of 2010 and serves as politics editor based in Washington, D.C.
