WASHINGTON — Tired of politics? Of politicians? Think elections don’t matter?
Think again.
This year’s elections will be some of the most consequential in decades and Michigan is set up to be one of the most consequential states on the electoral map.
Consider:
Not only is it a foregone conclusion that Michigan will help decide whether President Donald Trump remains in office or not, its U.S. Senate race is expected to be one of the most contested in the nation and could help determine control of that chamber. There are also races in suburban Detroit congressional districts that could signal which party holds the majority in the U.S. House next year.
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Those elections will help shape decisions over access to health care, climate change, tax policy, the economy, immigration and U.S. relations with foreign powers, including Iran and North Korea. The people elected will manage or exacerbate a growing federal deficit. They will confirm Supreme Court justices who will decide questions about abortion, gun ownership, freedom of speech and expression. They will decide whether supermajorities will continue to be needed to pass legislation in the Senate. They will make policies affecting poor families, college students, automakers and business owners.
They could decide how to react to an economic slowdown if, as some experts believe, one is on the way. And they could be asked to respond to a foreign war or a nuclear threat to the U.S. or its allies.
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“I would consider it the most consequential election of my lifetime and I’ve been watching politics since I was 13 years old,” said Dee McBroom, a veteran Democratic campaign consultant.
Much of that is because of Trump, who engenders fierce loyalty in those who see him as an antidote to trite traditions and political correctness, projecting American strength and decisiveness, and an equally fierce distaste in those who view him as a bully and a crackpot, spewing hate on Twitter and unfit for office.
But it’s not just about Trump, either.
Donald Trump takes shot at Debbie, John Dingell in Battle Creek rally
Donald Trump made a comment about Debbie Dingell and her late husband, John Dingell, during his “Merry Christmas” rally in Battle Creek.
Mandi Wright, Detroit Free Press
The elections will be a referendum on how divided the nation remains in what its people believe, what they want from their politics and politicians, and how they — both politicians and the people themselves — comport themselves. It will help decide whether the nation believes a loss of civility in political discourse has been worth the upending of a status quo that, for many, wasn’t working.
“Is the Republican Party the party of Trump or is it the party of Romney or Bush? Is the Democratic Party the party of AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) and Bernie Sanders or is it more Obama, Biden and Buttigieg?” said Andrea Bitely, a consultant with Truscott Rossman, a communications firm in Lansing, who worked as spokeswoman for former state Attorney General Bill Schuette. “That’s what this election is about: Who are we?”
So, there’s a lot riding on this year’s elections and Michigan will be at the center of it along with Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and a handful of other states. Here’s a look at what’s coming between now and Election Day, Nov. 3.
First, the primaries, and Michigan’s role in them
Unless you’re really trying to avoid politics, you already know that President Trump, despite being impeached by the House in December, is running for reelection and has the Republican nomination in the bag. Even with recent dropouts, the Democrats have a cast of more than a dozen running to be their party’s nominee.
Michigan’s presidential primary is Tuesday, March 10, and it’s at a potentially auspicious spot on the election calendar.
As the national polls stand now, the race for the Democratic nomination is really among a handful of candidates — former Vice President Joe Biden, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Those same four also hold the polling lead, though not necessarily in that order, in the first four states to vote: Iowa, on Feb. 3; New Hampshire, on Feb. 11; Nevada, on Feb. 22, and South Carolina, on Feb. 29.
The outcome in those races will further narrow the field, though two billionaires — former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who sits just behind the leaders in national polling, and entrepreneur Tom Steyer — have enough cash of their own to stay in as long as they want. Then, on Tuesday, March 3, the race for the nomination will explode with 14 states — including California, Texas and some other sizable states among them — voting, awarding about 40% of the total number of delegates available to the candidates.
If one candidate has taken over the race by then, it could be all but over. But if Super Tuesday leaves an unsettled nomination, the next week’s primary calendar includes six states, the biggest prize of which is Michigan.
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It is impossible to guess who will be in the lead at that point — the early polling hasn’t been conclusive and if some candidate takes a clear lead in the early voting, it could help swing support to him or her later. But if there is still a race, Michigan could matter and in unexpected ways.
Remember, in 2016, it was Sanders, not the favorite, Hillary Clinton, who won Michigan’s primary despite polls showing her ahead by double digits the weekend before the voting. Clinton ended up winning the nomination but her loss in Michigan’s primary may have presaged her close loss to Trump in the state that November.
It’s also worth mentioning: Any Michigan resident who is 17 1/2 or older (and will be 18 or older by Election Day) can register to vote in person at their city or township clerk’s office up to 8 p.m. the day of the election. If he or she wants to register by some other method, such as online or by mail, the deadline is 15 days before the election. There is no party declaration in Michigan, so in the March 10 primary, you can ask for whichever party’s ballot you want to vote in the primary, regardless of whether you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican or an independent. And under state law, you can now ask for an absentee ballot — without giving any reason — and submit your vote early, if you like.
As with any primary, however, an early vote makes it possible you’ll be voting for someone no longer in the race by Election Day. If that happens and the candidate gets more than 15% of the vote, his or her delegates will be divided proportionally among the remaining candidates.
Expect Trump to concede nothing, Michigan included
Even if the Democrats settle on a nominee early, Michiganders should reconcile themselves to being at the center of what is going to be a long, fractious and, at times, hard-to-stomach campaign.
Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — three states that together hadn’t gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984 — by about 77,000 votes combined in 2016, giving him an Electoral College edge but by the slimmest of voting margins. It will be difficult, if not impossible, for him to win in 2020 without doing well once again in the Rust Belt.
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And while there has been little recent polling, the Real Clear Politics average of polls as of October showed Trump trailing Biden, Sanders and Warren in the state (there haven’t been enough head-to-head polls between Trump and Buttigieg to say).
That could also explain why Trump reversed earlier threats to slash funding to clean up the Great Lakes and promised to green-light a new navigational lock at Sault Ste. Marie, as well as why he was in Toledo this week for a rally and will be back in Wisconsin next week as he tries to boost his standing in the industrial Midwest.
But, as always with the president, expect him not only to come bearing praise for himself but attacks on his enemies, such as U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Detroit, who called for his impeachment the day she was sworn into office, and U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, I-Cascade Township, a former Republican who has repeatedly called Trump unfit.
Once the Democratic nominee is determined, he or she will be barnstorming Michigan as well, given that Clinton’s campaign was widely criticized for taking the state for granted in 2016. But even before then, the shadow campaign is well underway, with groups targeting voters and spending on outreach. Priorities USA, a pro-Democratic group, early last year announced a $100 million effort in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida; America First Action, a group supporting Trump, said last May it was spending $250 million in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia.
Expect groups to flood the state with ads and social media posts, the major parties attacking each other and claims, true and false, flying through the airways.
“The Republicans and the Trump campaign snuck up on the Democrats in the 2016 campaign by whatever means. … But the Democrats will be more prepared in 2020,” said Mike Traugott, with the Center for Political Studies at the University of Michigan.
In other words, buckle up. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Michigan’s U.S. Senate race will be fiercely fought
One thing about Trump’s ’16 win in Michigan: It came in a year when no U.S. Senate seat was up for grabs, meaning that while Clinton’s campaign was doing little in the state, there was no other statewide race going on for Democrats and their allies (such as labor unions) to pump up voter turnout.
That won’t be the case this year.
U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, who was the only Democrat to win an open Senate seat in 2014, is up for reelection, and, as it stands now, will likely face off against John James, an African American businessman who lost in the 2018 election as the Republican nominee against Peters’ Democratic colleague, U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
There is much that makes it a compelling race. Peters is often ranked as one of the least known members of the Senate while James has made a name for himself appearing on Fox News as a pundit and proved himself an able fundraiser, raising $3.5 million to Peters’ $2.5 million in the last three months of 2019 (though it’s expected Peters has a good deal more cash on hand; the full finance reports won’t out until the end of January.)
But James has also embraced Trump — and after a long silence finally came out against impeachment — and could be inextricably linked with the president and his fortunes, whatever they are in Michigan.
Peters, meanwhile, has long touted his bipartisan bona fides, calling for cuts in government waste and urging help for small businesses while at the same time remaining a reliable Democratic vote. He leaves little to chance when it comes to elections, however, winning his last four — three to the U.S. House and one to the Senate — even in Republican wave years.
Still, for Republicans looking to keep control of the Senate, Peters’ seat is seen as a possible opportunity with James in the field. Some polls have shown James within striking distance of Peters, though the Real Clear Politics average of polls shows the incumbent ahead by about 8 percentage points.
As far as the impact of this race, meanwhile, it’s potentially huge: Republicans have a three-seat margin in the Senate and are defending 23 seats to the Democrats’ 12. Whichever party holds majority control, it will determine lifetime confirmations to the Supreme Court — with two conservative justices, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, already being confirmed during Trump’s first term.
There also remain questions about whether either party could move to get rid of the filibuster that requires 60-vote margins on some of the most consequential pieces of legislation. If that happens, it means the party in control will have a much easier time enacting policy — though that, in turn, could also make for an even-more volatile political situation.
Will Democrats keep the U.S. House seats they flipped?
In the House, Democrats hold a 36-seat majority after taking control of the chamber last year. The 2018 election saw the party flip 43 seats (and lose three of its own) nationally, including two districts in Michigan, both representing parts of Detroit’s western suburbs.
And while two may not sound like a lot, those seats could be a bellwether for Democrats in the House nationally.
The question will be whether U.S. Reps. Elissa Slotkin, D-Holly, and Haley Stevens, D-Rochester Hills, can hold on to them. Both districts have historically been Republican strongholds; both were drawn to protect Republican incumbents after the 2010 Census.
The Democratic women who won in each did so by talking about the need to protect health care, support businesses, invest in the state — not by attacking Trump. But now they face Republican attacks carping on their support for impeaching Trump after he asked the Ukrainian president to investigate Biden, without any evidence that Biden had had done anything wrong. It’s against federal law to solicit foreign aid in a U.S. election.
Slotkin, a former intelligence official and acting assistant defense secretary, has also been thrust into the limelight over Trump ordering a drone strike that killed an Iranian general and Iran’s retaliatory strikes against U.S. personnel in Iraq, cautioning that escalation could lead to war. After speaking from experience over multiple tours of duty, Slotkin was also given the responsibility for managing a resolution calling for limits on the president’s authority in taking military action in the Middle East.
Trump is almost assured of being acquitted by the Republican majority in the Senate, but the House impeachment could still be an issue for Slotkin and Stevens’ re-elections.
Helping them, however, are several factors. First, both are in districts where Trump struggled relative to other Republican presidential candidates and that have been trending more Democratic. Second, no big-name, top-tier candidates with independent wealth or overwhelming Republican connections have stepped forward to face them — possibly because a whole new set of congressional district lines will be drawn after this year’s Census, leaving anyone who runs now looking at a whole new district by 2022.
Third, both Slotkin and Stevens can raise plenty of money: As of the end of the last official reporting period on Sept. 30, Stevens, who worked on President Barack Obama’s auto task force, had raised close to $2 million total. Slotkin had raised close to the same — and said that as of the end of the year, she had raised another $1.28 million. (Official tallies for the third quarter aren’t due until Jan. 15.)
Much will ultimately depend on who wins the nominations to face them.
In Slotkin’s district, which includes northern Oakland County and Ingham and Livingston counties, the announced GOP candidates so far include state Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, who lives just outside the district boundaries in Dexter (a congressional candidate can legally live outside the district he or she is running for as long as he or she lives in Michigan); Paul Junge, a former Lansing TV anchor who also worked for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services in Washington, D.C.; Kristina Lyke, a criminal defense and divorce lawyer in Lansing; Alan Hoover, whose website says he is an entrepreneur in Ortonville, and Mike Detmer of Howell, who works for an automotive supplier.
Running for the Republican nomination in Stevens’ district, which includes parts of Oakland and western Wayne counties, at present are former U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio of Milford; Whittney Williams of Canton, who is an official with a local Republican group and first-generation immigrant from Taiwan; Frank Acosta, a Northville entrepreneur, and Birmingham lawyer Erick Esshaki.
More candidates could enter the races, however, with the filing deadline for the Aug. 4 primary — which is for any offices other than president — on April 21.
Independent Justin Amash faces a tough road
Outside of the state, Michigan’s two best-known members of Congress could well be Amash and Tlaib, given their loud, pointed criticisms of Trump and the president’s documented history of hitting back via Twitter.
Of the two of them, though, Amash faces the tougher road ahead.
As it stands now, no one with deep pockets, widespread support or high name recognition has stepped forward to challenge Tlaib in the Democratic primary, which will all but determine who wins in this predominantly Democratic district.
It’s a much different case for Amash, a former Republican who last year broke with his party over the question of impeachment, believing, after a close reading of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report, that Trump obstructed justice. He later abandoned the party — calling both parties toxic — and became the House’s sole independent member.
As of now, Amash, of Cascade Township in west Michigan, is presumably running for reelection and not something else (such as a third-party bid for president). But he’s something of a long shot despite being the incumbent.
Republicans have put forward a strong slate of candidates for their party’s bid in a district that still favors the GOP, including Joel Langlois, who owns the DeltaPlex Arena in Grand Rapids; Peter Meijer, whose last name is synonymous with the grocery store chain started by his family; state Rep. Lynn Afendoulis, R-Grand Rapids, and former Sand Lake Village President Tom Norton.
Some Democrats, meanwhile, believing they could finally flip this district, have entered the race as well, including lawyer Nick Colvin, who worked in the Obama White House and for the city of Chicago, and Hillary Scholten, who worked in the Justice Department while Obama was president and with the Michigan Immigrant Rights Center. And then there is Amash, who has represented the district since 2011.
The Cook Political Report, a political handicapping site in Washington, lists the race as “Lean Republican,” which suggests an advantage for the GOP but, especially with Amash in the race, not a necessarily insurmountable one in three-way balloting.
As for other congressional seats in Michigan this year, the only one that looks like a possible race is in southwestern Michigan, where U.S. Rep. Fred Upton, R-St. Joseph, has been in office since 1987.
The genial Upton is a well-liked politician, including by many Democrats in Congress, but this has also been a district that has trended more Democratic in some years, offering a pickup opportunity. Several Democrats are vying for the nomination but the one receiving the most attention is state Rep. Jon Hoadley of Kalamazoo, a member of the House Appropriations Committee who has pushed for getting rid of partisan redistricting and reducing the influence of money in politics.
The Cook Political Report still lists it as “Likely Republican.”
As for other races around the state, most are expected to stand pat — the only congressman who has said he won’t run for reelection is Rep. Paul Mitchell, R-Dryden, in a predominantly Republican district. With redistricting around the corner, it doesn’t look — at this early stage — that many big name candidates will enter the races and challenge the incumbents.
Retired Brigadier Gen. Doug (Odie) Slocum, who previously commanded Selfridge Air National Guard Base in Harrison Township, and state Rep. Shane Hernandez. R-Port Huron, are among a group of candidates who have filed for Mitchell’s seat. Former state Rep. Gretchen Driskell, D-Saline, will try for a third time to knock off U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton.
But anything can happen, especially given the volatility of the president, an uncertain economy, and the potential for instability in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Then there are questions about control in Lansing …
All 110 seats in the state House of Representatives will be up for grabs as well this year, with Republicans hoping to keep the majority they’ve held since 2011.
But the GOP, which currently has a 58-52 majority in the House, lost five seats in the 2018 election and Democrats are hoping to flip the chamber this year.
It’s also worth noting that, because of term limits, 12 Democrats and 10 Republicans will be leaving regardless.
In terms of fundraising, meanwhile, Republicans have a distinct cash advantage with $2.2 million available cash in the House Republican Campaign Committee account, while the House Democratic Fund is far lighter at about $517,000.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is particularly interested in helping flip the House in order to make more progress on her Democratic agenda. But given the way districts have been drawn across the state, she could have a tough time doing so unless there is a Democratic wave election that swamps even local races.
… and control of the state Supreme Court
Control of the Michigan Supreme Court, where Republican-nominated justices currently hold a 4-3 majority, is also at stake. Two seats on the court are up for election — those filled by Chief Justice Bridget Mary McCormack, a Democratic nominee, and that of Justice Stephen Markman, a GOP nominee.
Markman can’t run again because of the court’s age limit of 70 at the time of a justice’s election. That means it will be an open seat, and if Democrats win it while retaining McCormack’s seat, they would have a 4-3 majority on the court.
Meanwhile, these issues could be put directly to voters
While nothing has been certified for the November ballot yet, a number of ballot proposals are making the rounds.
A coalition of businesses, politicians and social justice leaders earlier this week proposed a ballot question that would expand the state’s civil rights law to protect members of the LGBTQ community from discrimination in housing and hiring.
The group could get the signatures it needs to get on the ballot. But it will still face opposition from some religious and conservative leaders, who have pledged to campaign against it. Former state Rep. Gary Glenn, R-Midland, is president of the American Family Association, which promotes what it calls traditional family values, and has said such measures have been used “to discriminate against and violate religious freedom.”
Meanwhile, Right to Life of Michigan has been gathering signatures to ban an abortion procedure known as dilation and evacuation that is used to end some pregnancies in the second trimester, but voters may never see that question on their ballots.
If the Republican-led Legislature in Lansing approves it, then it bypasses Whitmer — who has threatened a veto — and it will go into effect without the referendum being held. On the other hand, legislators could do nothing and then it would be put to voters.
Finally, Voters Not Politicians, the group that won passage of a state constitutional amendment creating an independent redistricting commission in 2018, has been looking at a possible proposal requiring financial disclosure for elected state officials, as well as potentially extending Michigan’s legislative term limits.
Michigan currently requires no financial disclosures by state lawmakers and consistently ranks at or near the bottom of state rankings for transparency and ethics laws. Though no specific term limits plan has been unveiled, one reform proposal would allow lawmakers to serve a combined 20 years in the House and Senate. Currently, lawmakers are limited to six years in the House and eight years in the Senate.
There has also been talk of a constitutional amendment to create a graduated income tax or an initiative or bond proposal to fix the roads, though neither appears to be definite.
There are local issues, too
Voters in metro Detroit are also going to face questions on public transit and the arts.
On the March 10 presidential primary ballot, voters in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties will be asked to support — or reject — a 0.2-mill renewal ballot proposal to support the Detroit Institute of Arts for 10 years.
The ask already has raised hackles in the region because the DIA had previously said it wouldn’t request a millage hike again when it first asked in 2012 and now it is making the request two years before the initial millage is set to expire. But museum officials say it’s needed to handle costs and that a lot — such as the city of Detroit’s trip through bankruptcy — has happened in the meantime.
Another issue that will probably face voters in Wayne, Oakland and Washtenaw counties in November is a ballot proposal to improve and expand public transit in southeast Michigan. Some work is needed before that can be put on the ballot, however. Changes in the state law that govern municipal partnerships have to happen before the measure can get on the ballot.
As for the parties, both are gearing up for an explosive campaign season.
Last week, at a “Fems for Dems” event in Pontiac, Whitmer whipped up the troops saying, that the word important “doesn’t even go far enough to explain how critical this year is.”
“The world is going to be looking to Michigan,” she said.
That is one of the few things in which she may agree with state Republican Party Chairwoman Laura Cox.
“The 2020 elections will be fought over the values that define our nation,” Cox said. “Michigan will be center stage in the fight to preserve our American way of life and the Michigan Republican Party is ready.”
Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @tsspangler. Read more on Michigan politics and sign up for our elections newsletter.
